New data reveals a significant decline in the number of Europeans flying to the U.S. this March, with approximately 178,000 fewer Western Europeans traveling by air compared to the same period last year. This represents a 17.4% decrease, bringing the total number of travelers to 846,577, according to the U.S. International Trade Administration.
The reduction in visitors from France, Germany, and the U.K.—the primary European countries for U.S.-bound travel—was recorded at 5%, 29%, and 15%, respectively. Analysts note the shift might partially be due to Easter’s late occurrence this year, with celebrations falling on April 20 compared to March 31 in 2024. Typically, Easter can cause minor fluctuations in travel patterns, but it does not traditionally contribute to double-digit reductions.
There are indications that political factors, like President Trump’s trade policies and immigration stance, may be impacting travel confidence. Reports suggest some French and German nationals have faced challenges entering the U.S., potentially contributing to decreased bookings.
Among North American travelers, Canadian interest seems to be waning too, catalyzed by tariffs and political rhetoric concerning the relationship between the U.S. and Canada. Ben Smith, CEO of Air France and KLM, expressed concern over this trend, stating they are monitoring the situation closely.
Despite current declines, airlines are planning for an increase in travel capacity from April through September. Air France and KLM are among the carriers boosting seat availability to the U.S. by 8% and 11.5%, respectively. Aviation analytics firm Cirium reports a 4.2% increase in overall transatlantic seats compared to last year.
United Airlines, Delta Air Lines, and American Airlines remain key players in transatlantic travel, with new routes planned for destinations such as Greenland, Sicily, and Scotland, showing confidence in possible fluctuations being short-term.
Savanthi Syth, an airline analyst at Raymond James, suggested that while inbound travel might be waning, outbound travel from the U.S. remains steady, potentially balancing out the disparity. Lufthansa Group CEO Carsten Spohr echoed this sentiment, describing transatlantic travel demand as robust.
No immediate booking impacts are visible yet, according to Lufthansa CEO Jens Ritter, although a Swiss spokesperson noted a decline in leisure travel bookings. Should the drop in foreign visitors continue, the financial implications could be substantial, with the U.S. Travel Association forecasting potential revenue losses. Delta Air Lines is expected to provide further insights with the release of its first-quarter results.
