The Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies has released a new policy paper titled “Want Combat Airpower? Then Fix the Air Force Pilot Crisis,” addressing the United States Air Force’s (USAF) shortage of fighter pilots. Heather R. “Lucky” Penney, a former USAF F-16 aviator and Senior Resident Fellow at the institute, highlights a gap of 1,150 fighter pilots, emphasizing the urgency to address this issue.
Penney warns that the USAF is not prepared to compete with adversaries like China’s People’s Liberation Army Air Force due to this pilot shortfall. She states, “We must build the ‘fight tonight’ force with enough strategic depth to successfully sustain combat operations in a peer fight.”
The report questions whether autonomous systems such as Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) can fill this gap. However, Penney argues that while CCAs should be developed, they cannot replace human pilots. She notes, “Despite advances in artificial intelligence, autonomy will continue to have limitations and vulnerabilities that humans do not share.”
To address the crisis, Penney suggests reinvesting in USAF Reserve and Air National Guard units. She explains that these components are crucial for maintaining operational reserves and alleviating pressure on active-duty forces.
Penney also calls for modernizing reserve squadrons by acquiring advanced versions of legacy aircraft like the F-15EX and F-16 Block 70/72. Additionally, she recommends increasing annual F-35 acquisitions to prevent further aging of the fleet.
Her recommendations include ensuring advanced simulators are available for training and fully funding weapons sustainment accounts. She concludes that investing in reserves is essential for meeting global security demands: “Simply too small to meet the full range of the nation’s global security demands.”
Penney draws parallels with historical air forces during World War II, stressing that failing to invest could lead to similar challenges faced by German and Japanese air arms.
