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Future unclear for USAF's next-gen air dominance program

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Future unclear for USAF's next-gen air dominance program
Policy
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Joanna Bailey Managing Editor | Simple Flying

The future of the NGAD program, specifically its manned fighter component, is uncertain and faces significant challenges. The high cost of developing and procuring NGAD jets raises questions about the program's viability. General Kenneth S. Wilsbach, head of the US Air Force's Air Combat Command, has indicated that the manned sixth-generation fighter under the Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program may not replace the F-22 Raptor.

Gen. Wilsbach stated, "Right now, frankly, there isn’t an F-22 replacement. The F-22 is a fantastic aircraft. We’re actually planning several upgrades to the jet as we speak, and there is no official replacement to the F-22 right now." This statement adds to the uncertainty surrounding how the US Air Force plans to maintain its technological edge in air combat.

Speculation continues about NGAD’s future. The War Zone describes it as facing "withering support" and a "murky" future. Initially envisioned to replace both F-22 Raptors and F-15 Strike Eagles while complementing F-35s through the 2030s and 2040s, NGAD's path forward remains unclear.

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The costs associated with NGAD are substantial; an individual fighter is expected to cost hundreds of millions of dollars, far exceeding that of an F-35. Despite this financial burden, Gen. Wilsbach mentioned that a downselect for the NGAD aircraft is anticipated this year with Boeing and Lockheed Martin vying for the contract award.

The development history of US fighter jets adds context to these uncertainties. The F-22 Raptor was initially intended to replace older models like the F-15 but faced cancellations due to cost overruns and geopolitical shifts following the collapse of the USSR. Consequently, production continued for variants like the recently introduced F-15EX Eagle II.

However, despite its advanced capabilities, including air dominance roles performed by around 120 combat-ready units (excluding those used for training), questions linger about what will ultimately succeed or complement these platforms if NGAD does not fulfill this role.

Gen. Wilsbach avoided confirming whether NGAD would be an outright replacement for the F-22: "As most everybody knows, we’re in source selection for NGAD...it’s not wise...to talk too much about NGAD," he said, adding that certain aspects remain undisclosed publicly but include Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA).

Concerns over budget constraints add another layer of complexity; each NGAD jet could cost approximately $300 million with efforts underway to reduce this figure. Regardless of potential cost reductions, procurement numbers are likely to be low by historical standards for US Air Force acquisitions.

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