Future unclear for USAF's next-gen air dominance program

The costs associated with NGAD are substantial; an individual fighter is expected to cost hundreds of millions of dollars, far exceeding that of an F-35. Despite this financial burden, Gen. Wilsbach mentioned that a downselect for the NGAD aircraft is anticipated this year with Boeing and Lockheed Martin vying for the contract award.

The development history of US fighter jets adds context to these uncertainties. The F-22 Raptor was initially intended to replace older models like the F-15 but faced cancellations due to cost overruns and geopolitical shifts following the collapse of the USSR. Consequently, production continued for variants like the recently introduced F-15EX Eagle II.

However, despite its advanced capabilities, including air dominance roles performed by around 120 combat-ready units (excluding those used for training), questions linger about what will ultimately succeed or complement these platforms if NGAD does not fulfill this role.

Gen. Wilsbach avoided confirming whether NGAD would be an outright replacement for the F-22: "As most everybody knows, we’re in source selection for NGAD...it’s not wise...to talk too much about NGAD," he said, adding that certain aspects remain undisclosed publicly but include Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA).

Concerns over budget constraints add another layer of complexity; each NGAD jet could cost approximately $300 million with efforts underway to reduce this figure. Regardless of potential cost reductions, procurement numbers are likely to be low by historical standards for US Air Force acquisitions.