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Southwest Airlines faces pressure from activist investor amid declining revenues

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Southwest Airlines faces pressure from activist investor amid declining revenues
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Gary Leff Chief Financial Officer | View from the Wing

Two weeks ago, Southwest Airlines announced earnings projections that fell significantly short of their previous guidance for the second quarter. The airline had initially forecasted a worst-case scenario of a 3.5% year-over-year drop in revenue per available seat mile. However, the latest projections indicate a decline between 4% and 4.5%.

The job of Southwest's CEO is reportedly at risk amid these financial struggles. Elliott Capital Management has acquired nearly $2 billion in the airline's stock and aims to influence its direction. To prevent Elliott from gaining control, Southwest adopted a poison pill strategy that dilutes any acquirer whose stake reaches 12.5% without board approval.

Elliott Capital stated they do not intend to buy the airline outright but seek to control and reform it through a proxy fight to elect their candidates to the board.

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Elliott Capital claims that Southwest is underperforming financially and needs new management. This perspective aligns with sentiments expressed by Southwest during their first-quarter earnings call. The airline plans to announce significant changes at an upcoming investor day, including potential features such as assigned seats, premium extra legroom seats, and basic economy options.

The proposed "Love Cabin" would offer extra legroom seats at the front of the aircraft, potentially requiring reconfiguration but not necessarily reducing total seating capacity. Additionally, Southwest may introduce blocked middle seats for sale within this cabin, similar to Frontier Airlines' model.

Reports suggest that Southwest is also developing a replacement for their lowest fare class, Wanna Get Away. Passengers purchasing this fare might board last and have limited seat selection options. While two free checked bags are a core part of Southwest’s value proposition, there could be new restrictions on changes.

Many of these initiatives align with suggestions made by Elliott Capital, which argues that Southwest lacks desirable routes and premium products compared to competitors.

However, Elliott Capital appears uncertain about specific solutions for improving the airline's performance beyond advocating for new leadership. They propose forming a Board-level Business Review Committee led by fresh perspectives and operational excellence.

Elliott Capital intends to expedite shareholder involvement in leadership changes through a proxy fight aimed at replacing current board members and the CEO. Nonetheless, there is concern about whether these changes alone will address Southwest's challenges effectively.

Southwest's competitive advantage lies in its culture, customer value, and product simplicity. While incremental revenue improvements through enhanced seating options are possible, transforming the airline into a replica of legacy carriers—whose market valuation is already lower—may not benefit shareholders or ensure long-term success.

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