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DOJ grants extension suggesting possible approval of Alaska-Hawaiian merger

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DOJ grants extension suggesting possible approval of Alaska-Hawaiian merger
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When Alaska Airlines agreed with the Department of Justice (DOJ) to extend their review period, it indicated a potential government approval for the merger with Hawaiian Airlines. The extension reflects ongoing negotiations and suggests a deal may be imminent.

The DOJ had expressed concerns and sought concessions from Alaska Airlines. The likelihood of reaching an agreement was uncertain, as it could have been a last-minute effort by the airline to offer something substantial. The government, however, has the discretion to file suit to stop the deal at any time.

With an additional 24-hour extension granted, now until August 16th, there is a significant implication that both parties believe they are close to finalizing an agreement. However, it remains unclear what Alaska might need to concede to avoid an anti-trust lawsuit.

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This development increases the probability of a deal being reached compared to just a day ago when Hawaiian Airlines' shares fell by as much as 13% before recovering due to concerns over DOJ opposition potentially derailing the merger.

Alaska Airlines is paying a premium for Hawaiian Airlines—a 3.5 times premium over pre-announcement share prices—benefiting Hawaiian shareholders but posing challenges for Alaska's shareholders. Key points of concern include:

- A Honolulu hub with high competition from United, American, Delta, and Southwest on mainland-Hawaii routes.

- Money-losing intra-Hawaii flights due to Southwest’s capacity dumping in these markets.

- Debt and integration costs associated with mergers that are often expensive and rarely yield promised synergies.

- An incompatible fleet and weak market positions in Asia Pacific.

Hawaiian Airlines customers might experience reduced inter-island capacity but will benefit from more valuable miles within oneworld programs. There will also be increased concentration on U.S. mainland-Hawaii routes. Despite these changes, the merger may protect competition given Hawaiian's status as an undersized carrier facing challenges.

The primary issue appears not to be anti-trust concerns but rather that Alaska Airlines is overpaying for assets that could divert focus from other growth opportunities.

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