Air cargo sees steady growth amid shifting economic indicators

Research

Muhammad Albakri Senior Vice President, Financial Settlement & Distribution Services | International Air Transport Association

By Sky Industry News

Oct 31, 2024

Total demand for air cargo, measured in cargo tonne-kilometers (CTKs), increased by 9.4% in September 2024 compared to the same month last year. This growth marks the 14th consecutive month of expansion, with international operations seeing a rise of 10.5%. Capacity, assessed through available cargo tonne-kilometers (ACTKs), rose by 6.4%, driven largely by a continued increase in international belly capacity.

Willie Walsh, IATA's Director General, commented on this performance: “September performance brought continued good news for air cargo markets. With 9.4% year-on-year growth, cargo volumes continued to mark all-time highs for demand. Yields are also improving, up 11.7% on 2023 and 50% above 2019 levels. All this points to a strong finish for this year."

In terms of industrial production and global goods trade, there was an increase of 1.6% and 2.8%, respectively, indicating a positive trend over six months.

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Despite these gains, the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for global manufacturing output stood at 49.4 and new export orders at 47.5, both below the threshold indicating contraction.

Inflation trends showed some easing with US headline inflation dropping by 0.2 percentage points to reach 2.4%, while EU inflation decreased by 0.3 percentage points to stand at 2.1%. China's consumer inflation remained low at just 0.4%.

Regionally, Latin America led with a significant growth rate of 20.9% in air cargo demand over the previous year, while Africa recorded the slowest growth at just 1.7%. Asia-Pacific and Europe both saw an increase of approximately 11.7%, while North America experienced a more modest rise of only 3.8%.

Trade lanes reported notable activity with Asia-North America showing continuous growth over eleven months at +7.6%. The Middle East-Europe route marked fourteen consecutive months of expansion with +15.6%.

Overall market share based on CTK shows Asia-Pacific holding the largest portion at around one-third (33%), followed by North America and Europe.