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Russia's missile launch into Ukraine sparks debate over weapon type

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Russia's missile launch into Ukraine sparks debate over weapon type
Policy
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On November 21, Russia launched a missile into Ukraine, initially identified by Ukrainians as an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). However, Russia claimed it was a new "hypersonic" missile, while the United States identified it as an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM). The launch appears to be a response to Ukraine receiving permission to use Anglo-French Storm Shadow/SCALP missiles and American Army ATACMS missiles against Russian targets.

U.S. officials were quick to counter Ukraine's ICBM claims, asserting that the missile was an IRBM. Both types of missiles are designed for nuclear payloads and are not typically used in conventional warfare due to the risk of nuclear escalation. "There’s debate as to the nature of the missile (ICBM or IRBM), but the political objective is, in my opinion, much clearer," said Tristan Sauer, a GlobalData defense analyst.

The U.S. Embassy in Kyiv had issued a warning on November 20 about potential air attacks following notifications from Russia through nuclear risk reduction channels. Reports suggest that the U.S. had briefed Ukraine and allies about this potential threat days prior.

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Russian President Vladimir Putin referred to the missile as an "Oreshnik," which current speculation suggests could be an RS-26 or based on it. The U.S. government believes Russia possesses only a limited number of these experimental weapons and does not consider them game-changers in the ongoing conflict.

Meanwhile, the British Ministry of Defence noted that despite its advantages, Russia's Aerospace Forces have failed to secure air superiority over Ukraine after more than 1,000 days of conflict. As tensions continue, discussions among U.S. and European officials revolve around deterrence strategies for Ukraine.

"So U.S. and European officials are discussing deterrence as a possible security guarantee for Ukraine," reported the New York Times.

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