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Russian aviation industry faces hurdles amid sanctions

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Russia is facing significant challenges in its aviation industry due to Western sanctions that have isolated it from the international market. According to the Russian news outlet Kommersant, half of Russia's new A321neos and A320neos are grounded, with some likely never to fly again.

The majority of Russia's airliners, including those in Aeroflot's fleet, are Airbus and Boeing jets. Even domestically produced aircraft like the Sukhoi Superjet rely on engines developed through international partnerships. As these jets age, they will require retirement sooner than expected due to a lack of replacement parts and official maintenance services.

"Russia now plans to produce 994 passenger aircraft by 2030 - a trimmed but still incredibly optimistic estimate," states a report related to Russia’s domestic production target revisions. The country initially aimed for 1,000 aircraft by this date following its invasion of Ukraine.

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To achieve these goals, Russia must replace Western components with domestic alternatives such as the Aviadvigatel PD-8 engine. This transition is challenging because Western parts previously accounted for 55-60% of the Sukhoi Superjet's cost before sanctions were imposed. Kommersant notes that the Russified MC-21 could be heavier and less efficient than intended.

Compounding these difficulties is Russia's ongoing conflict in Ukraine, which prioritizes military needs over civil aviation in terms of resources. Despite plans to increase domestic production with orders for hundreds of aircraft like the Sukhoi Superjet and Tupolev Tu-214, progress has been slow.

"No MC-21s or Superjets have been built," reported Kommersant regarding current production statuses three years after the invasion began. Instead, management changes occurred at Tupolev and Yakovlev due to what was described as "the failure of civil aviation."

Aeroflot has historically transitioned from Soviet-made jets to Western models post-Soviet Union collapse, becoming safer as a result. However, recent incidents increased thrice in 2023 compared to previous years under sanction pressures.

Though daunting challenges lie ahead for Russian aviation—including potential fare increases—the situation does not render it impossible for Russia to eventually produce passenger jets domestically.

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