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SAF production doubles in 2024 but falls short of projections

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SAF production doubles in 2024 but falls short of projections
Research
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Anton Grove Senior Vice President, People, Performance & Development (PPD) | International Air Transport Association - IATA

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has released new figures regarding the production of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF). In 2024, SAF production reached 1 million tonnes, doubling from the previous year but falling short of earlier estimates. Initially, projections for 2024 anticipated a production level of 1.5 million tonnes. The delay is attributed to key SAF facilities in the United States postponing their ramp-up plans to early 2025.

Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General, commented on the situation: “SAF volumes are increasing, but disappointingly slowly. Governments are sending mixed signals to oil companies which continue to receive subsidies for their exploration and production of fossil oil and gas." He also noted that investors seem hesitant without guarantees of returns. Despite this, Walsh emphasized that airlines are keen to purchase SAF and see it as part of a long-term decarbonization strategy.

Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA’s Senior Vice President Sustainability and Chief Economist, highlighted the broader context: “The airline industry’s decarbonization must be seen as part of the global energy transition... We need the whole world to produce as much renewable energy as possible for everybody."

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To achieve net zero CO2 emissions by 2050, IATA's analysis suggests a need for between 3,000 to over 6,500 new renewable fuel plants. These facilities would not only support aviation but also other industries requiring renewable diesel and fuels.

Walsh urged governments to deliver concrete policy incentives similar to those seen in wind and solar power transitions: “Governments must quickly deliver concrete policy incentives... And a good portion of the needed funding could be realized by redirecting a portion of the retrograde subsidies that governments give to the fossil fuel industry."

IATA outlined three short-term measures to boost SAF production: increasing co-processing at existing refineries, diversifying SAF production methods beyond HEFA pathways like Alcohol-to-Jet (AtJ) and Fischer-Tropsch (FT), and creating a global SAF accounting framework.

An IATA survey indicated strong public backing for SAF initiatives. It found that 86% of travelers believe governments should incentivize SAF production for airlines.

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