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Low passenger numbers affect US-Europe flight routes

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Low passenger numbers affect US-Europe flight routes
Policy
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Lufthansa Boeing | Wikimedia

According to the US Department of Transportation, nearly 77 million roundtrip passengers traveled between the United States and Europe in the 12 months leading up to October 2024. This accounted for about 31% of the international traffic from the U.S. On average, 83% of seats on flights across the Atlantic were filled during this period.

Seat load factor, which measures the proportion of available capacity filled by passengers, is a key metric for airlines. When capacity exceeds demand, fares and load factors drop; conversely, when demand outpaces capacity, fares and loads may increase. Adjusting capacity can help airlines optimize yields and performance.

Lufthansa plans to increase its Munich-Denver service by 74% this summer by switching from an Airbus A350 to an A380. While high load factors might seem beneficial, they often consist of lower-yielding segments such as leisure travel.

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An analysis of over 340 U.S.-European airport pairs revealed that some routes had notably low load factors in the year ending October 2024. The lowest was Terceira (Azores) to New York JFK at 47%, operated by Azores Airlines since 2022. Other routes with low load factors included Funchal to New York JFK (54%), Frankfurt to San Antonio (60%), and Manchester to Houston Intercontinental (60%).

"Numerous factors impact loads," noted an industry analyst. "Is it worth adjusting to see if performance improves, or is it better to cut your loss and use your costly asset elsewhere?"

Some routes have been discontinued or are set to end soon due to these challenges. For instance, Azores Airlines has cut its Funchal-Boston route after one season, while TAP Air Portugal will begin a new Lisbon-Terceira-San Francisco service in June 2025.

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