Ryanair adjusts passenger forecast amid ongoing Boeing delivery delays

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Ryanair adjusts passenger forecast amid ongoing Boeing delivery delays

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Michael O’Leary Group Chief Executive Officer of Ryanair | Wikimedia

By Sky Industry News

Feb 3, 2025

Ryanair has announced a reduction in its FY26 traffic guidance by 4 million passengers due to delays in Boeing aircraft deliveries. The Irish low-cost airline, which operates several subsidiaries across Europe, reported a profit after tax of €149 million ($156.8 million) for Q3 FY25, a significant increase from the previous year's €15 million ($15.7 million). Revenue rose by 10% year-on-year to €2.96 billion ($3.11 billion).

CEO Michael O’Leary attributed the improved profits to resolving a dispute with online travel agencies that affected the previous year's results. "We have now fixed the OTA dispute, and therefore, this year’s Q3 is a more normal figure," he stated.

Operating costs increased by 8% year-on-year to €2.93 billion ($3 billion), while Ryanair's average load factor remained at 92%. The airline welcomed 44.9 million passengers during the quarter, marking a 9% increase compared to last year.

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Despite strong demand in Q3 FY2025 and moderating fare declines, Ryanair continues to face challenges due to Boeing 737 MAX delivery delays. O’Leary noted that traffic was up 9%, but ongoing delivery issues persist.

By December 31, 2024, Ryanair had received only two additional Boeing 737 MAX aircraft since H1 FY25, totaling 172 aircraft out of its fleet of 609. A strike by Boeing machinists from September to November further delayed production resumption until early December.

The airline is working with Boeing to expedite deliveries ahead of summer 2025 but acknowledges the risk of further delays remains high. "While we continue to work with Boeing leadership...the risk of further delivery delays remains high," said O'Leary.

In anticipation of summer demand, Ryanair plans capacity reallocations based on regions investing in growth through aviation tax cuts or incentives for traffic growth.

The airline maintains its target of reaching 200 million annual passengers in FY25 but has adjusted its FY26 outlook from 210 million to 206 million due to Boeing's schedule changes.

Despite these challenges, Ryanair expects full-year unit costs to remain flat as fuel hedge savings and interest income offset other cost pressures. Its current FY25 PAT guidance ranges between €1.55 billion ($1.63 billion) and €1.61 billion ($1.69 billion), subject to external factors such as geopolitical tensions and air traffic control staffing issues.