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Airlines reduce US-Canada flights as bookings decline amid trade tensions

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Airlines reduce US-Canada flights as bookings decline amid trade tensions
Research
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Danyal Ahmed Credit card writer | The Points Guy

Recent data indicates a significant reduction in flight bookings from Canada to the United States for the months of April through September. According to aviation analytics firm OAG, bookings are down by over 70% compared to the previous year. This decline coincides with increased tariffs implemented by the U.S. and political tensions.

John Grant, chief analyst at OAG, attributed the decrease in bookings to "ongoing uncertainty surrounding the broader trade dispute." In contrast, Air Canada disputes this analysis, claiming it does not reflect their booking patterns. The company acknowledges a slight decline in the transborder market and has adjusted capacity accordingly, but insists the drop is not as severe as OAG suggests. An Air Canada spokesperson stated, "the decline Air Canada has experienced is not of the magnitude cited," and emphasized that the reduction is "significantly less" than indicated by the preliminary data.

The Trump administration's imposition of a 25% tariff on most Canadian goods and the prospect of expanding these tariffs has strained relations between the two countries. This has led to a drop in travel from Canada to the U.S. In February, Justin Trudeau, the former Canadian Prime Minister, encouraged Canadians to "choose Canada" for travel plans, stressing national solidarity amid these tensions.

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U.S. Customs and Border Protection data indicates that the number of people crossing from Canada into the U.S. fell by 12.5% year-over-year in February. Airlines are responding to this shift in traveler behavior. United Airlines CEO, Scott Kirby, announced a cut in flights to Canada due to reduced Canadian traffic to the U.S. Similarly, Air Canada's Alexandre Lefèvre described the current market as "shaky."

Aviation analytics firm Cirium reports a 9% drop in U.S.-Canada seats for 2025 compared to a week earlier. Notable route reductions include direct flights between major city pairs like Washington D.C. and Vancouver, Los Angeles and Toronto, along with several other routes.

A WestJet spokesperson noted a pattern of travelers opting for destinations like Mexico, the Caribbean, and transatlantic locations. Delta Air Lines has adjusted its schedules to "better align with customer demand," whereas United Airlines stated its changes are "regular adjustments to our flight schedule based on seasonality, demand and other market factors."

Canadian airlines, primarily Air Canada, Porter Airlines, and WestJet, face significant exposure due to their large share of U.S.-Canada flights. A considerable decrease in Canadian travelers could have adverse effects on the entire U.S. travel industry. The U.S. Travel Association has estimated potential losses for American businesses to be up to $2.1 billion due to a decline in Canadian visitors.

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