Scandinavian air traffic declines amid ongoing airspace closures due to conflict

Not all of the 1.2 million missing seats are on routes between Scandinavia and Asia. Other factors also contribute. Cirium, an aviation analytics company, reported that the Scandinavia-Asia market had almost 500,000 fewer departing seats in 2024 than in 2019. SAS blames the capacity loss as "a direct consequence of closed airspace over Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine." It also cites "broader geopolitical instability in Asia and the Middle East" as contributing factors, exemplified by recent closures in Pakistani airspace forcing Indian flights on longer paths.

Scandinavian Airlines also highlighted the cost of rerouted flights on its Copenhagen-Shanghai route, warning of "higher fuel consumption, reduced aircraft and crew efficiency, increased operating costs, and decreased cargo payload" as factors that "undermine the competitiveness of European carriers."

Despite current constraints, SAS remains optimistic about its Asian routes, planning to "open a new route to Seoul in September 2025," where "all airlines face similar operating conditions." However, SAS does not plan direct flights to or from China in 2025, as Asian carriers gain from unrestricted routes.

Asian carriers like those from China have increased capacity on routes that SAS has reduced or withdrawn, benefiting from their ability to overfly restricted regions. The evolving situation shows the impact of ongoing geopolitical tensions on global aviation routes.