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Potential impact of new US tariffs on Embraer deliveries

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Potential impact of new US tariffs on Embraer deliveries
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Embraer | Wikipedia

Seeking Alpha has reported a concerning development for Embraer following US President Donald Trump's threat to impose a 50% tariff on all imported Brazilian goods. The potential tariffs have led to declining stock prices as they threaten Embraer's competitiveness in the United States, its largest market.

Earlier this year, President Trump announced blanket tariffs on nearly all imported goods to encourage consumer spending on domestic products. This presents a challenge for the aviation industry, which is globally interconnected with only a few major players. As the world's third-largest civil manufacturer after Boeing and Airbus, Embraer's exclusion from the US market could create significant issues for airlines.

The proposed 50% tariffs are set to take effect on August 1, 2025. These tariffs are specifically due to tensions between Brazil and the United States over alleged censorship in Brazil and lawsuits against a former Brazilian president. If implemented, these tariffs would severely impact Embraer, one of Brazil's largest exporters. Additionally, retaliation by Brazil could exclude Boeing from the Brazilian market.

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Sean Duffy, US Transport Secretary, has criticized Trump's tariff policy and suggested that aviation should return to an era without tariffs. Some tariffs have been paused until August; however, those on aircraft remain active.

Embraer currently offers three commercial aircraft: the E175, E190-E2, and E195-E2. While development of the E175-E2 is paused due to lack of demand in compliance with US scope clauses, the E175 continues to secure orders from US regional airlines as it remains unique in its size class.

In private aviation, Embraer's light Phenom family and midsize Praetor family jets are successful and profitable. However, comparable business jets by domestic companies like Cessna pose competition.

To bypass these tariffs, some airlines are exploring alternative delivery methods for new aircraft outside of direct imports into the United States. For instance, Delta Air Lines took delivery of an Airbus A350-900 by first flying it to Tokyo-Narita before entering service.

As countries respond with reciprocal tariffs on American goods outside the US borders—such as Lufthansa considering taking delivery of its Boeing 787-9s in Switzerland—this strategy may become more common if trade tensions persist.

For Embraer planes designed primarily for short-haul flights like the E175s facing potential restrictions due solely based upon operational jurisdiction (i.e., domestically vs internationally), navigating this environment will be challenging amid existing domestic alternatives within North America itself—a potentially devastating outcome should these measures come into full force against them ultimately proving true given current dynamics involved here today overall!

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