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July sees steady global air cargo growth despite declines on Asia-North America route

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July sees steady global air cargo growth despite declines on Asia-North America route
Research
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Willie Walsh Director General | International Air Transport Association

Global air cargo demand rose by 5.5% in July 2025 compared to the same month last year, according to new data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA). International operations saw a slightly higher increase of 6.0%. Available capacity increased by 3.9% year-on-year, with international capacity up by 4.5%.

“Air cargo demand grew 5.5% in July, a strong result. Most major trade lanes reported growth, with one significant exception: Asia–North America, where demand was down 1.0% year-on-year.

A sharp decline in e-commerce, as the US de minimis exemptions on small shipments expired, was likely offset by shippers frontloading goods in advance of rising tariffs for imports to the US. August will likely reveal more clearly the impact of shifting US trade policies. While much attention is rightly being focused on developments in markets connected to the US, it is important to keep a broad perspective on the global network. A fifth of air cargo travels on the Europe–Asia trade lane, which marked 29 months of consecutive expansion with 13.5% year-on-year growth in July,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.

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In June, global goods trade expanded by 3.1% compared to the previous year. The price of jet fuel in July was down by 9.1% from a year earlier and has remained below levels seen so far this year, which has helped reduce airline operating costs; however, it was up by 4.3% compared to June.

The global manufacturing sector contracted again in July as indicated by a Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) reading of 49.66—its second dip below the key threshold since January—while new export orders also declined for a fourth consecutive month at an index level of 48.2.

Regional performance varied significantly:

- Airlines based in Asia-Pacific experienced an 11.1% increase in demand—the highest among all regions—with capacity up by 7.3%.

- North American carriers posted only a modest gain of 0.7%, while their available capacity decreased by 0.6%.

- European airlines recorded a demand rise of 4.1%, matching their capacity growth.

- Middle Eastern airlines saw demand grow by 2.6%, but their capacity rose more sharply at 5.9%.

- Latin American carriers had a demand increase of 2.4%, with capacity up by 3.8%.

- African airlines registered a notable jump in demand at 9.4%, while their available capacity slipped slightly by 0.1%.

Analysis across key trade lanes showed mixed results:

The Europe–Asia corridor accounted for about one-fifth of total air cargo and achieved its twenty-ninth straight month of expansion with growth at +13.5%. North America–Europe traffic also continued its positive trend (+9.6%) for an eighteenth consecutive month.

However, volumes between Asia and North America fell for the third month running (-1%), reflecting recent changes such as stricter US import rules and shifts in e-commerce activity following policy changes regarding small shipment exemptions and tariffs.

Other corridors including Middle East–Asia (+8.5%), within Asia (+10.3%), and Africa–Asia (+12.1%) also showed strong increases.

The latest data indicate that while some markets face headwinds from changing trade policies and economic uncertainty, other regions and routes continue to see robust growth driven by both ongoing recovery and structural trends within global supply chains.

Organizations Included in this History
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