Despite these increases, industry trends suggest airfares tend to decrease closer to optimal booking periods. "If previous trends hold, however, we expect to see some fairly substantial fare drops over the next several weeks. Our best advice is to set Google Flights price alerts and easily monitor prices that way. Of course, our standard advice holds true here, too: If you see a deal, jump on it," according to The Points Guy.
TPG recommends booking domestic holiday flights one to two months ahead of travel. For Thanksgiving trips, this typically means late September or early October is ideal. Based on historical patterns, average fares could fall by about $40 as the best booking window approaches. The cheapest day to fly during Thanksgiving week is expected to be Thanksgiving Day itself with an average airfare around $466; traveling earlier in the week can also yield lower fares.
For Christmas travel in 2025, current average domestic economy flight prices are approximately $677—up from $633 last year—and premium cabins have seen even steeper increases. International Christmas fares now average $1,266. TPG projects that prices may drop by about $80 before reaching their lowest point in October.
"Points Path and The Points Guy data shows that the cheapest day to travel during the Christmas holidays is Christmas Eve, with an average airfare of about $535. If you can travel on New Year's Eve, that is the other cheapest day, with an average airfare of $536," according to TPG's analysis.
Travelers are advised not to wait until specific days or times of week hoping for lower prices; instead, flexibility with dates and destinations remains key for savings. Booking midweek or on Saturdays can often result in better deals due to reduced business travel demand.
TPG also notes that those using airline miles should begin searching and booking as soon as possible for greater availability—especially in business class cabins—or monitor dynamically changing rates for domestic redemptions. Many airlines allow customers who avoid basic economy tickets to cancel and reclaim miles if a better deal arises later.
"I strongly encourage folks to set Google Flights alerts and carefully monitor prices. Points Path can also monitor airline award prices and alert you to changes," said The Points Guy.
Other recommendations include considering vacation packages through major carriers like American Airlines Vacations or using tools such as Google Flights Explore and award booking extensions like Points Path for more affordable options.
In summary, while holiday airfare is higher at present compared with last year’s rates for both domestic and international routes around Thanksgiving and Christmas, historical trends suggest significant drops may occur between now and October—the typical window for securing lower holiday fares.
###
Alerts Sign-up
