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Delta Air Lines stock falls despite steady profit forecast amid travel demand

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Delta Air Lines stock falls despite steady profit forecast amid travel demand
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Ed Bastian, Chief Executive Officer | Delta Air Lines

Delta Air Lines shares fell by approximately 4.4% on Thursday morning after the company reaffirmed its full-year earnings guidance and projected third-quarter revenue growth of about 2-4%. This guidance was largely in line with previous expectations and slightly above consensus estimates, but the sell-off surprised many investors. In contrast, other airline stocks generally rose between 0.5% and 1.5%, with Frontier Airlines gaining more than 5%.

The market reaction followed Delta’s participation at the Laguna conference, an event hosted by Morgan Stanley that draws financial analysts from various sectors. Delta’s leadership, including President Glen Hauenstein and Vice President of Investor Relations Julie Stewart, discussed updated forecasts for the remainder of the year during a session with Ravi Shanker, Managing Director and Lead Research Analyst at Morgan Stanley.

Hauenstein highlighted improvements in premium cabin margins and strong demand across the sector: "We're seeing very strong domestic corporate demand into the fall, which we're very excited about. We actually had our highest post-pandemic corporate sales number for any day and any week in the September. So looking like the fall is going to be quite solid in terms of the booking demand for corporate as well as high-yield leisure."

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Earlier this year, airlines had reduced earnings projections due to lower demand caused by trade tariffs imposed during Donald Trump’s administration and related economic uncertainty.

At around 10:45 AM Eastern Time—when Delta spoke at the conference—the airline filed an 8-K reaffirming its annual outlook and projecting third-quarter revenues between $16 billion and $16.3 billion. Despite these figures being slightly above expectations, shares dropped roughly 4%. The broader market tone was positive following an encouraging inflation report; however, Delta’s stock responded uniquely to company-specific commentary.

As a result of Thursday's decline, Delta's year-to-date return turned negative at -0.35%, lagging behind United Airlines’ performance of over 12% gains since January 1st.

Investor concerns centered on weaker margins in economy class cabins—a trend noted by Delta during its second-quarter earnings call—which diverges from United Airlines' recent margin growth in basic economy fares. Delta has also canceled some routes due to low load factors in economy cabins; one example is this week’s cancellation of service between Austin and Midland.

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