Aircraft delivery delays may cause capacity crunch for airlines through decade's end

Boeing’s output is also constrained by regulatory oversight after two fatal 737 MAX crashes in 2019 led to an extended grounding of the fleet. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has capped monthly deliveries of the MAX at 40 units for now. Boeing spent over six years reworking grounded jets before resuming deliveries.

The situation is further complicated by a lack of alternative suppliers. China’s Comac has yet to gain Western safety certification for its C919 jet, limiting global competition. As a result, prices for both new and used aircraft have risen, impacting availability across markets.

To meet ongoing demand, airlines have extended leases on older aircraft or kept aging planes like Lufthansa’s 747s in service longer than planned. This practice increases costs for airlines and lessors while reducing overall efficiency due to more frequent maintenance needs and higher fuel consumption.

Both manufacturers have outlined plans to increase output: Airbus hopes to reach up to 70 jets per month by late 2026; Boeing is targeting around 50 MAX deliveries per month while working with Spirit AeroSystems—a key fuselage supplier—on quality improvements. Efforts include assigning more inspectors and revising FAA protocols for approving quality documents.

The merger between Boeing and Spirit AeroSystems is expected to finalize by early 2026 but is complicated by Spirit’s role as a supplier for both Boeing and Airbus. Addressing complexity in seat configurations is also a focus for Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg, who said at a June 2025 Bernstein Conference:

“We’re watching real closely to make sure that we aren’t over committing in terms of how many different seat configurations we can get certified in a certain period of time and the complexity. It’s something that we’ve got to watch, particularly the Dash 10s that have types of complex seat configurations.”

Boeing’s delivery figures reflect ongoing challenges: after peaking at 580 MAX deliveries in 2018, numbers dropped sharply during the grounding period before slowly recovering.

The development of new widebody models like Boeing's 777X has also been delayed due to engineering setbacks identified during flight testing and additional scrutiny from regulators. The pandemic further slowed progress by reducing available staff at both Boeing and regulatory agencies.

Industry experts expect these constraints will persist for several years before backlogs become manageable again. In the meantime, passengers may see higher fares while airlines rely more heavily on older aircraft or leased jets until production stabilizes.