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American Airlines raises profit forecast after smaller Q3 loss

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American Airlines raises profit forecast after smaller Q3 loss
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Robert D. Isom, CEO and President | American Airlines

American Airlines reported a smaller-than-expected loss for the third quarter of 2025 and raised its full-year profit outlook, driven by stronger fares after industry-wide capacity reductions and higher demand for premium seats. The airline's revenue reached a record $13.7 billion, with adjusted earnings per share at -$0.17, outperforming analysts' expectations of a $0.28 loss per share.

Management now forecasts fourth-quarter adjusted earnings per share between $0.45 and $0.75, with full-year profits expected to be in the range of $0.65 to $0.95 per share. The company also projects ending the year with about $1 billion in free cash flow.

Sequential unit revenue improved throughout the quarter and turned positive in September, indicating strengthening pricing as the holiday season approaches. This performance has led to renewed investor focus on American Airlines’ ability to generate cash and improve margins in the near term, causing shares to rise by approximately 5% earlier today.

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According to company filings, “The company sought to emphasize disciplined capacity, continued loyalty monetization, and a holiday booking curve that supports this growth-oriented outlook.” Management highlighted that “Net results still reflect seasonality in demand, but the airline's cadence highlights improving pricing power and a clear path towards year-end profitability.”

The new guidance implies that American Airlines could be profitable for 2025 if operational discipline is maintained through controlled non-fuel costs and stable holiday demand despite discounting pressures. The carrier’s management stated that sequential revenue per available seat mile (RASM) demonstrated resilient premium demand, suggesting pricing power may be returning as industry capacity remains constrained.

“American Airlines is certainly trying to project confidence to the market, something for which it has been rewarded with a 5% bump in share prices,” according to management commentary following the report.

Unlike United Airlines—which recently missed expectations—American Airlines emphasized operational discipline over premium revenue generation as its primary strategy toward profitability.

The latest results indicate progress toward restoring stability after years of challenges related to domestic pricing fragility within the industry.

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