Boeing states that air travel demand continues to outpace economic growth in an increasingly connected world. Four years after the pandemic grounded most of the global fleet, air traffic growth has returned to a long-term trend predicted by Boeing two decades ago.
In a survey conducted by Boeing, 84% of respondents said they would prioritize travel in their budget while 66% indicated they would travel more than they did before the pandemic.
Compared to 2023, passenger air traffic is projected to rise by an average of 4.7% annually over the next two decades, according to the CMO.
Globally, Boeing noted that GDP remains steady at 3%, while inflation and interest rates are decreasing.
“This is a challenging and inspiring era for aviation. The return to more typical traffic growth shows how resilient our industry is, even as we all work through ongoing supply chain and production constraints amid other global challenges,” said Brad McMullen, Boeing senior vice president of Commercial Sales and Marketing.
CMO forecast highlights through 2043 include:
- The global commercial fleet is projected to grow by 3.2% annually but more slowly than air traffic as airlines continue boosting productivity by increasing load factors and using airplanes more hours per day.
- The air cargo fleet is expected to increase by two-thirds by 2043 to support a projected annual air cargo traffic growth rate of 4.1%.
Air travel trends outlined in the report show:
- The average global airline fare remains similar to what it was twenty years ago despite overall consumer prices doubling.
- The number of global routes served by commercial airlines has returned to 2019 levels; nearly 20% of these routes are new, illustrating aviation's adaptability in a dynamic market.
Key growth drivers identified include:
- South Asia passenger traffic will increase by 7.4%, followed by Southeast Asia (7.2%) and Africa (6.4%), as emerging markets revert to historical growth trends through the forecast period.
- Eurasia is projected to lead all markets with airplane deliveries accounting for 22% of total deliveries; North America and China follow closely behind at approximately 20% each.
- Single-aisle airplanes will constitute about 71% of the fleet in 2043 after receiving around 33,380 new deliveries aimed at serving short-to-medium haul routes efficiently.
Additionally,
- Boeing expects demand for addressable commercial services valued at $4.4 trillion driven primarily by maintenance options and digital solutions aimed at enhancing efficiency.
“As airlines respond to robust passenger demand," Dan Abraham stated "the services market continues expanding not only due directly resulting from fleet growth but also increased focus on reducing operating costs while deploying efficient sustainable solutions.”
Projected New Deliveries (2024–2043):
Regional Jet: 1,525
Single Aisle: 33,380
Widebody: 8,065
Freighter: 1,005
Total: 43,975
Boeing has published its CMO annually since its inception in1961.
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