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The Department of Justice's statutory review period for the Alaska Airlines acquisition of Hawaiian Airlines lapsed on Monday without an antitrust suit. This development was unexpected, as many anticipated a deal where Alaska would guarantee minimum service between the islands of Hawaii.

However, Alaska Airlines walked back its claim that this meant the DOJ’s review of the merger was complete. The DOJ could still file suit.

Investigative antitrust reporter Diane Alter wrote for CTFN Mergers & Acquisitions Reporting that while Alaska's first statement was effectively but not technically accurate, "As a practical matter, the DOJ is likely done with its review," citing a source with knowledge of the matter.

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The DOJ will continue to consult with the White House and Department of Transportation as DOT works towards approval of the transaction. Although the statutory waiting period has lapsed, the transaction cannot close until DOT approves it. Therefore, technically, DOJ could still file suit prior to transaction closure. They are not expected to and have largely moved on from the matter.

The Department of Transportation is expected to approve the deal after consultations with both the Office of the President and Vice President, according to Alter. However, DOT may still extract concessions from Alaska before doing so.

Any guarantees offered by Alaska regarding sets or frequencies for a period on inter-island routes should not prevent the deal from closing. Consequently, Hawaiian Airlines stock rose by approximately half a percent today to nearly $17.50—very close to the deal price of $18. This gap reflects both some small amount of uncertainty and the time value of money since the deal will not close immediately.

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