Trump administration proposes ban on Chinese airline use of Russian airspace for U.S.-China flights

Currently, seat capacity between US and Chinese airlines is roughly balanced, though it remains at about 30% of pre-pandemic levels. Demand for flights between the two countries is high, with potential for further growth if restrictions are eased.

According to AviationWeek, only four out of 18 direct US-China routes operated by Chinese carriers entered Russian airspace in the past week. These include:

- China Eastern Airlines: Shanghai Pudong-New York JFK

- China Southern: Guangzhou-New York JFK

- Air China: Beijing Capital-Los Angeles; Shenzhen-Los Angeles

Chinese airlines had previously agreed not to use Russian airspace on new routes launched after March 2024 when the DOT raised its weekly flight limit from 35 to 50 flights. However, they continue using Russian airspace on existing routes established before this agreement.

The long-term impact of this order could be greater as Chinese airlines look to restore routes lost during the pandemic. The Chinese government has criticized the proposal, stating it would undermine American interests. The DOT has given airlines two days to respond; if approved, the measure could take effect as soon as November.

US-China relations remain tense amid efforts by both governments to rebuild travel connections disrupted by COVID-19. In March 2024, the DOT increased flight limits for Chinese carriers from 35 to 50 weekly roundtrips. Despite this move toward recovery, US airlines have pushed back against any further increases unless their competitors stop using Russian airspace.

Before COVID-19 disruptions, Chinese airlines operated more than three times as many flights as currently allowed and offered more than twice as many airport pairings between both countries.

Boeing is also engaged in talks with China regarding up to 500 aircraft sales and has over 200 planes committed for delivery there. Ongoing trade tensions may complicate these negotiations following President Trump's suggestion of a possible 100% tariff on goods from China and potential White House export controls on key parts needed for China's commercial fleet—more than 1,800 Boeing aircraft are currently in service in China.