Trump administration considers restricting Chinese airline use of Russian airspace on US routes

The dispute traces back to Russia’s decision in 2022 barring American and many foreign airlines from its skies after Western nations banned Russian flights over their territories. Since then, Chinese carriers have expanded their market share by operating faster, more affordable flights via Russian airspace. In response to the US proposal, China's foreign ministry commented: "This US proposal is not conducive to continued international cooperation." Meanwhile, a trade group representing US-based airlines supported the DOT’s efforts: it encouraged aligning capacity with travel demand.

On the American side of this market are United Airlines, Delta Air Lines, and American Airlines—each rebuilding their networks under political constraints. United operates direct flights from San Francisco International Airport (SFO) as well as Los Angeles International Airport (LAX) hubs into Beijing or Shanghai; Delta recently restored service from Los Angeles with Airbus A350 jets; American flies from Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport (DFW) but faces limitations due largely to routing around Russian airspace rather than over it.

Since March 2024 regulators have allowed Chinese carriers up to 50 weekly flights—a level intended eventually for parity with US-based operators—but American companies oppose further increases until competition improves.

Across the Pacific Ocean stand three dominant Chinese legacy carriers: Air China based in Beijing; China Eastern in Shanghai; China Southern in Guangzhou—all benefiting by continuing overflights through Russian territory. Other players like Hainan Airlines or Xiamen add long-haul links when permitted under bilateral agreements but frequency remains determined mostly by politics rather than pure market forces.

Alliances also influence connections: both Air China and United belong within Star Alliance while Delta partners globally through SkyTeam centered at Shanghai Pudong Airport alongside China Eastern.

Cathay Pacific presents another complication since it's based in Hong Kong—not mainland China—but still enjoys access across Russian skies unlike most Western competitors. Initially excluded from potential restrictions by DOT proposals—creating what some see as a loophole—United Airlines has urged authorities not only target mainland lines but include Hong Kong-based ones too so any rules apply equally industry-wide.

If enacted broadly—including Cathay Pacific—the rules could lengthen flight times by two or three hours for all affected Asian operators leading potentially higher fares due rising costs plus riskier connections for travelers needing tight transfers elsewhere along their journey schedules might tighten resulting in fewer available seats overall even as competitive conditions improve for U.S.-based companies forced onto longer paths since 2022 bans began.

In summary: “At the end of the day,” according to recent analysis,"this is yet another story about how Russian airspace closures have had a major impact on commercial aviation...the ultimate end...would be reopening of Russian airspace…but highly unlikely without definitive conclusion" to ongoing conflict in Ukraine.