Cirium forecasts delivery of over 46,000 new aircraft globally by 2044

Both Airbus and Boeing have published similar forecasts. Airbus anticipates the global fleet will double by 2044 with around 49,000 new aircraft produced by then. The company also expects a yearly increase in demand for aviation services by 10%, driven by rising passenger numbers and airline interest in renewing fleets with more efficient models.

Boeing's forecast estimates that airlines will need about 49,640 new planes by 2044. It projects that narrowbody aircraft will comprise roughly 70% of the global fleet, with widebodies at about 17% and regional or freight planes making up the rest. North America, Eurasia, and China are expected to have the largest fleets; however, South and Southeast Asia, Africa, and China are predicted to see the highest passenger growth rates.

One ongoing challenge noted in Cirium’s report is persistent delivery delays due to global supply chain issues. The company projects a reduction in deliveries by about 6% over the next seven years compared to earlier estimates because production rates—especially for narrowbody jets—have not increased as anticipated.

Factors contributing to these delays include lingering effects from the COVID-19 pandemic, shortages of skilled labor, geopolitical instability in some regions, and certification hold-ups for certain models.

Stephen Burnisde, Global Head of Cirium Ascend Consultancy, commented on industry prospects: "The next chapter of aviation growth is being defined by the need for supply chain resilience, production capacity right sizing, product and service innovation, and a focus on efficiency."

Looking ahead, manufacturers are expected to continue investing in research on sustainable next-generation aircraft as part of efforts toward commercial aviation’s net-zero emissions targets.